Page Text: Colmar Brunton: NZ Labour leads National by 47-33
Seventeen days before the October 17 New Zealand election, a new poll has Labour short of a majority in its own right.
A New Zealand Colmar Brunton poll, conducted September 23-27 from a sample of 1,005, gave Labour 47% (down one since last week), National 33% (up two), the right-wing ACT 8% (up one), the Greens 7% (up one) and NZ First just 1% (down one).
PM Jacinda Ardern had a net approval of +51; this is very good, but down from +76 in May. 72% approved and 22% disapproved. Opposition Leader Judith Collins had a net approval of +12, down from +27 in July. 50% approved and 37% disapproved. Rounding explains the one-point difference compared with subtracting disapprove from approve. Ardern led Collins as better PM by 54-23 (54-18 last week).
If this poll were the result on October 17, Labour would win 59 of the 120 seats, two short of a majority. National would win 43 seats, ACT ten and the Greens eight. Labour’s seat number has slipped by three since last week, partly because the combined votes of all parties below the 5% threshold has dropped to 5% from 8%. More effectively wasted votes helps the bigger parties.
The Greens will be relieved that their vote in this poll is two points above the threshold. If the Greens failed to clear the threshold, Labour would win a majority provided that their vote exceeded that for National and ACT combined. Currently Labour leads National/ACT by 47-41, but that’s down from 48-38 last week.
A Reid Research poll was released on Sunday, but the fieldwork was taken September 16-23, about the same dates as last week’s Colmar Brunton poll (September 17-21). The Reid Research poll gave Labour 50.1%, National 29.6%, the Greens 6.5% and ACT 6.3%. Seat projections from this poll were Labour 65, National 39, Greens and ACT eight each.
Posted on
PiS-aligned Duda wins Polish presidential election; right wins in Croatia
At the October 2019 Polish parliamentary elections, the economically left, but socially conservative and anti-immigrant Law and Justice party (PiS) retained its majority in the lower house with 235 of the 460 seats. However, PiS lost its Senate majority, winning 48 of the 100 Senate seats. The lower house is more powerful.
The Polish president can veto legislation, so it is not just a symbolic role. In the June 28 first round of the presidential election, the incumbent Andrzej Duda, who is aligned with PiS, won 43.5%, followed by the Civic Platform’s candidate, Rafał Trzaskowsk i , on 30.5%.
The Civic Platform is a member of the European People’s Party, the conservative European parliamentary faction. It is more socially liberal than PiS, but to the economic right of PiS.
Genuine left-wing parties have performed badly in Poland recently. They won just 49 of the 460 lower house seats at the October parliamentary elections after being left with zero seats following the 2015 election. In the first round of the presidential election, the only left candidate won a mere 2.2%.
At the July 12 runoff election, Duda defeated Trzaskowsk i by a 51.0% to 49.0% margin. Duda’s victory means that PiS will maintain control of the Polish government.
Conservatives win easily in Croatia
The Croatian election was held on July 5. Croatia uses proportional representation with multi-member constituencies. The governing conservative HDZ won 66 of the 151 parliamentary seats (up five since 2016), while the centre-left Restart won 41 seats (down four). The far-right DPMS won 16 seats, another conservative party (Most) won eight seats (down five) and the Green-Left party won seven seats.
This was a very disappointing result for Restart, which appeared to narrowly lead in pre-election polls. Popular votes were 37.2% HDZ, 24.9% Restart, 10.9% DPMS, 7.4% Most and 7.0% Green-Left.
76 seats are required for a majority, and HDZ is ten seats short, but they will be able to form a coalition with either the DPMS or Most and other parties.
Posted on
German political crisis in Thuringia and Italian regional elections
At the October 2019 Thuringian state election , the far-left Left party won 29 of the 90 seats, the far-right AfD 22, the conservative CDU 21, the centre-left SPD eight, the Greens five and the pro-business FDP five. As covered here , the FDP barely entered parliament, just beating the 5% threshold.
With 46 seats needed for a majority, the former Left/SPD/Green government was unable to continue with only 42 combined seats. But alternative governments also appeared unviable as the CDU would not work with the Left. Any government that did not involve the Left would have needed the AfD’s support, but the AfD has been frozen out by all other German parties.
At the February 5 opening of parliament, Left leader Bodo Ramelow announced he would attempt to lead a minority government. The state president is elected by a secret ballot of MPs. The first two votes require an absolute majority of all MPs (46 votes). If this threshold is not met, a third vote is first-past-the-post.
Ramelow easily won the first two votes against the AfD’s candidate, but was short of the 46 required with many abstentions. On the third ballot, FDP leader Thomas Kemmerich entered, and defeated Ramelow by 45 votes to 44.
While it was a secret ballot, it was clear that Kemmerich could not have won without the support of both the CDU and AfD. It is the first time a German state president has been elected with AfD support.
After much condemnation, including from federal CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel, Kemmerich resigned on February 8. A new election is likely to be needed, but a two-thirds majority of the Thuringian parliament is required to approve it. Polls suggest large gains for the Left at the CDU’s expense, and a Left/SPD/Green coalition would likely win an election.
The Thuringian crisis has had federal consequences. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) was elected federal CDU leader, replacing Merkel in December 2018, and was expected to run as the CDU’s candidate for chancellor at the next German election. But AKK resigned on February 10, owing to the failure of the Thuringian CDU to heed her calls not to support a government propped up by the AfD. A new CDU leader will need to be elected, and the party could shift to the right.
Since the Thuringian crisis, there has been a slight dip for the CDU/CSU and a slight rise for the Greens in German federal polling . The AfD and SPD are unchanged, while there has been a rise for the Left and a fall for the FDP. Current standings are about 27% CDU/CSU, 22% Greens, 14% AfD, 13% SPD, 9% Left and 8% FDP.
Italian regional elections: left holds Emilia-Romagna, but right gains Calabria
Italian regional elections were held in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria on January 26. In Emilia-Romagna, the left-wing candidate for president defeated the far-right candidate by a 51.4-43.6 margin, with just 3.5% for the Five Star Movement’s candidate. Since 2014, the left vote was up 2.4%, the right vote up 11.4% and the Five Stars down 9.8%. This region was considered an important hold for the left as it has been governed by the left since World War 2.
In Calabria, the right crushed the left by a 55-30 margin; this was a 23% swing to the right and a 31% drop for the left since 2014.
Latest federal Italian polling has the far-right League just above 30%, followed by the centre-left Democrats at over 20%, the Five Stars at 14%, the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) at 12% and the conservative Forza Italia at 7%. Since the Five Stars joined a governing coalition with the Democrats in August 2019, their polling has slid, with the Democrats and FdI the main beneficiaries. Previously, the Five Stars governed with the League.
Centre-left wins in Taiwan
At the January 11 Taiwanese presidential election , centre-left incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen crushed her conservative challenger by a 57.1-38.6 margin. Since the 2016 election, this was a 1.0% increase for Tsai and a 7.6% increase for the Kuomintang party’s candidate.
Posted on
Left wins Spanish confidence vote and Croatian presidency; Austria forms conservative/green government
At the November 10 Spanish election , national left-wing parties won 158 of the 350 lower house seats, and national right-wing parties 151. The remaining 41 seats went to mostly left-wing regionalist parties. This election was required because the major left-wing parties (the Socialists and Podemos) were unable to agree to form a government after the April election. This time there was an agreement between these two parties.
In Spain, a first round absolute majority is required (176 votes) at the PM’s investiture vote. If there is no absolute majority, a second vote is held at which only a simple majority – more Ayes than Noes – is needed.
Owing to abstentions from two regionalist parties, Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez had 166 votes in favour of him becoming PM and 165 opposed at the January 5 first round vote. As the Aye votes were short of the 176 absolute majority, a second round was held January 7. Sánchez won this second vote by 167 to 165.
Sánchez is now officially Spain’s PM, but his situation is precarious. He needs the regionalist parties to keep behaving to stay in government
Left wins Croatian presidency
The Croatian presidential election was held over two rounds – December 22 and January 5. In the December 22 first round vote, the centre-left Zoran Milanović won 29.6%, the conservative incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović 26.7% and the far-right Miroslav Škoro 24.5%. As right-wing candidates won a majority of the overall vote, Grabar-Kitarović was expected to win the runoff.
However, despite his low winning vote share in the first round, Milanović won the January 5 runoff by a 52.7% to 47.3% margin. It is likely that Škoro voters strongly supported Grabar-Kitarović, but that voters for all other first round candidates resoundingly backed Milanović.
While this is a good outcome for the left, the Croatian PM is far more important than the president. A parliamentary election is due by late 2020. A conservative government is currently in office.
Austria: conservative/green coalition government formed
Austria uses national proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election , the conservative ÖVP won 71 of the 183 seats, the centre-left SPÖ 40, the far-right FPÖ 31, the Greens 26 and the liberal Neos 15. To exceed the 92 seats needed for a majority, the ÖVP required any of the SPÖ, FPÖ or Greens to form a coalition.
The FPÖ was blamed for the breakdown of the previous conservative government, which resulted in this election being held three years early. It also lost 20 seats at this election, while the Greens re-entered parliament after falling below the 4% threshold in 2017.
On January 1, three months after the election, the ÖVP and Green leaders announced they had agreed to form a governing coalition. The agreement includes a pledge for Austria to become carbon-neutral by 2040, but also a tough stance on illegal immigration and cuts to corporate and income taxes.
On January 4, the agreement was overwhelmingly endorsed by Greens delegates. On January 7, the new government was sworn in. While this election was not good for the left, the far-right is not part of the Austrian government.
Israel: Netanyahu easily wins Likud primary
As no Israeli government could be formed after either the April or September 2019 elections, there will be a third election in a year on March 2.
After the most recent failure to form government, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu was challenged for leadership of his Likud party by Gideon Sa’ar. The primary was held on December 26 among Likud members. Netanyahu crushed Sa’ar by 72.5% to 27.5%, and will lead Likud into the March election.
Polling for the election suggests that the opposition Blue & White is ahead of Likud, but will not have enough support from other left-wing parties to form a government. With Yisrael Beiteinu unwilling to work with either Likud or Blue & White, the deadlock may not be broken.
Switzerland: Greens fail to win seat on executive council
I wrote about the Greens surge at the October Swiss election previously . Switzerland uses a seven-member executive council, rather than a single PM or president who wields executive power. These seven members are supposed to roughly reflect the overall composition of parliament. But despite the Greens’ gains at the election, they failed to win a Council seat at the December 11 Council election .
Posted on